Change is coming, according to the Bloomberg report."We project that the cost of manufacturing electric vehicles will fall dramatically, and faster than most people realize," says Salim Morsy, the author of the study.It's a BFD that General Motors managed to develop a car, the Chevy Bolt, that will go 200 miles on a charge and cost ,000.
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The 2022 timeframe is "certainly within the realm of possibility," he says, as long as charging infrastructure continues to roll out.
"If that is not better developed, that could limit the 2022 knee in the curve."So why doesn't the report call for a faster advance of electric cars, once they cost the same as the gas guzzlers we've been stuck with for a century? Posawatz points out it took 50 years for half of American households to hook up to the electricity grid.
Between 20, the average cost per kilowatt hour (k Wh) dropped from $1,000 to $350—a 65 percent plunge.
(Today's EVs have packs ranging from 30 k Wh in the new Nissan Leaf to 90 k Wh in the Tesla Model X.)Continuing that trend doesn't rely on any big breakthroughs in battery tech.
Instead, it's based on moderate improvements in production processes and battery chemistry, economies of scale as manufacturing expands, and "aggressive pricing" by producers eager to sign contracts with major automakers.
"We believe that between now and 2020, cost will continue to drop significantly," Morsy says.
"Way too much is put on that," says EV advocate Chelsea Sexton.
The 2022 date sounds about right, she says, but if consumers are going to switch to EVs, popular thinking needs to change, because car buying isn't a rational process.
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